ISSN 2221-1055 · e-ISSN 2413-2322

Ekonomika APK

— — —
Submit an article

Assessment of the impact of losses of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine due to military operations on the level of its national security (2014-2025)

Oleh Semenenko, Denys Hrazion, Serhii Mytchenko, Andrii Sahun, Maryna Sliusarenko
Received: 11.04.2025 Revised: 23.07.2025 Accepted: 29.08.2025
Abstract

The study focused on analysing the changes in Ukraine’s agricultural sector caused by the hostilities and their implications for national security, as well as finding strategies for the sector’s recovery. This study employed statistical data analysis, comparative analysis, and an assessment of the impact of military operations on various aspects of the Ukrainian agricultural sector to determine the extent of damage and opportunities for recovery. The study found that Ukraine’s agro-industrial complex has suffered extensive losses due to the hostilities, which posed severe risks to the country’s food, economic, social, and environmental security. Specifically, the occupation and hostilities have led to the loss of some agricultural land, its mining and degradation, which has reduced the production of major crops such as wheat, maize, sunflower, barley, and in 2022, about 1.2 mil t of grain could not be stored due to damaged warehouses, and over 30% of elevators were destroyed or damaged, resulting in the loss of another 2.5 mil t of grain. soybeans. The destruction of infrastructure, blocked ports, and logistical problems caused a 60% drop in maize and wheat exports, which reduced foreign exchange earnings and commodity prices – for instance, wheat fell by 25% and maize by 30%. At the same time, massive unemployment in rural areas, a decline in livestock, and a 30% reduction in the number of farms led to an 18.4% decline in meat production and a 14.7% decline in milk production, exacerbating social problems and   driving up prices. A labour shortage of more than 300,000 workers reduced agricultural production efficiency by 12%, and cultivated areas decreased by 10-12%. There have also been substantial environmental impacts, including soil and water pollution caused by the hostilities. To minimise these threats, comprehensive measures were needed, including mine clearance, restoration of agricultural infrastructure, diversification of logistics, and state support for agricultural producers. Implementing these measures will help stabilise the situation and ensure the country’s food security. The findings can be used to develop strategies to restore Ukraine’s agricultural sector, increase its resilience to crises, and strengthen national security in the face of military threats

Keywords
environmental impact; infrastructure; recovery; logistics; foreign exchange earnings
Details
DOI https://doi.org/10.32317/ekon.apk/4.2025.58
Issue Vol. 32, No. 4, 2025
Pages 58-69
  1. Agricultural market research. (n.d.). UkrAgroConsult. Retrieved from https://ukragroconsult.com/en/research/category/logistics/.
  2. Aluko, O.O., Li, C., Wang, Q., & Liu, H. (2021). Sucrose utilization for improved crop yields: A review article. International Journal of Molecular Sciences, 22(9), article number 4704. doi: 10.3390/ijms22094704.
  3. Daszkiewicz, T. (2022). Food production in the context of global developmental challenges. Agriculture, 12(6), article number 832. doi: 10.3390/agriculture12060832.
  4. Denissova, N., & Born, R. (2021). Prospects of innovative development of agricultural production on the example of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Scientific Bulletin of Mukachevo State University. Series “Economics”, 8(3), 39-45. doi: 10.52566/msu-econ.8(3).2021.39-45.
  5. Diachenko, M., & Zhmudenko, V. (2023). The agricultural sector of Ukraine: The current state and its recovery in the conditions of transformational changes. Economy and Society, 56. doi: 10.32782/2524-0072/2023-56-8.
  6. Fit, C.G., Cardozo, R.E., Rivaldi, J., Covinich, L.G., Vallejos, M.E., Cristina, A.M., & Clauser, N.M. (2025). Conversion of agro-industrial wastes into value-added products: Towards sustainable development. In R.T. Kapoor, M. Sillanpää, J. Zdarta & M. Rafatullah (Eds.), Biomass valorization (pp. 45-63). Singapore: Springer. doi: 10.1007/978-981-97-8557-5_3.
  7. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2025). Retrieved from https://www.fao.org/home/en/.
  8. Ghebreyohannes, T., et al. (2022). Challenges and resilience of an indigenous farming system during wartime (Tigray, North Ethiopia). Agronomy for Sustainable Development, 42, article number 116. doi: 10.1007/s13593-022-00812-5.
  9. Global Forest Watch. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.globalforestwatch.org/map/.
  10. Hassen, T.B., & El Bilali, H. (2022). Impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war on global food security: Towards more sustainable and resilient food systems? Foods, 11(15), article number 2301. doi: 10.3390/foods11152301.
  11. Junaid, M., & Gokce, A. (2024). Global agricultural losses and their causes. Bulletin of Biological and Allied Sciences Research, 9(1), article number 66. doi: 10.54112/bbasr.v2024i1.66.
  12. Key, R., Parrado, R., Delpiazzo, E., King, R., & Bosello, F. (2024). Potential climate-induced impacts on trade: The case of agricultural commodities and maritime chokepoints. Journal of Shipping and Trade, 9, article number 11. doi: 10.1186/s41072-024-00170-3.
  13. Khodakivska, O., Martyniuk, M., & Lupenko, Yu. (2023). Prospective analysis of the implementation of the “green” economy in the agricultural sector of Ukraine for the next 10 years. Scientific Horizons, 26(10), 163-179. doi: 10.48077/scihor10.2023.163.
  14. Kuiper, M., & Cui, H.D. (2021). Using food loss reduction to reach food security and environmental objectives – a search for promising leverage points. Food Policy, 98, article number 101915. doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101915.
  15. Laber, M., Klimek, P., Bruckner, M., Yang, L., & Thurner, S. (2023). Shock propagation from the Russia-Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability. Nature Food, 4, 508-517. doi: 10.1038/s43016-023-00771-4.
  16. Le, T.-H., Bui, M.-T., & Uddin, G.S. (2022). Economic and social impacts of conflict: A cross-country analysis. Economic Modelling, 115, article number 105980. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105980.
  17. Lin, F., Li, X., Jia, N., Feng, F., Huang, H., Huang, J., Fan, S., Ciais, P., & Song, X.-P. (2023). The impact of Russia-Ukraine conflict on global food security. Global Food Security, 36, article number 100661. doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100661.
  18. Manaye, A., Afewerk, A., Manjur, B., & Solomon, N. (2023). The effect of the war on smallholder agriculture in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia. Cogent Food & Agriculture, 9(1), article number 2247696. doi: 10.1080/23311932.2023.2247696.
  19. Mazur, K., & Alieksieieva, O. (2023). Ukraine’s agricultural sector in times of war: Turning challenges into opportunities. In R. Lohosha, V. Pidlubny, K. Mazur, O. Alieksieieva, I. Belkin, N. Germaniuk, Zh. Нarbar, V. Нarbar & O. Kubai (Eds.), Peculiarities of management of agricultural enterprises under martial law (pp. 25-65). Boston: Primedia eLaunch. doi: 10.46299/979-8-89269-753-8.2.
  20. Meaza, H., et al. (2024). Managing the environmental impacts of war: What can be learned from conflict-vulnerable communities? Science of the Total Environment, 927, article number 171974. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.171974.
  21. Melnychenko, V. (2024). Phytoremediation of soils contaminated as a result of military and anthropogenic impact. Scientific Reports of the National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine, 20(4),72-84. doi: 10.31548/dopovidi/3.2024.72.
  22. Migration research and publications. (n.d.). International Organization for Migration. Retrieved from https://www.iom.int/migration-research-and-publications.
  23. Mishra, A., Bruno, E., & Zilberman, D. (2021). Compound natural and human disasters: Managing drought and COVID-19 to sustain global agriculture and food sectors. Science of the Total Environment, 754, article number 142210. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142210.
  24. Moersdorf, J., Rivers, M., Denkenberger, D., Breuer, L., & Jehn, F.U. (2023). The fragile state of industrial agriculture: Estimating crop yield reductions in a global catastrophic infrastructure loss scenario. Global Challenges, 8(1), article number 2300206. doi: 10.1002/gch2.202300206.
  25. Newton, A.C., Evans, P.M., Watson, S.C.L., Ridding, L.E., Brand, S., McCracken, M., Gosal, A.S., & Bullock, J.M. (2021). Ecological restoration of agricultural land can improve its contribution to economic development. PLoS ONE, 16(3), article number e0247850. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0247850.
  26. Nycz-Wojtan, S. (2023). The current state of agrologistics in Ukraine and its impact on the state’s agribusiness. Scientific Journal of Bielsko-Biala School of Finance and Law, 27(3), 85-91. doi: 10.19192/wsfip.sj3.2023.13.
  27. Ortiz, A.M.D., Outhwaite, C.L., Dalin, C., & Newbold, T. (2021). A review of the interactions between biodiversity, agriculture, climate change, and international trade: Research and policy priorities. One Earth, 4(1), 88-101. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.12.008.
  28. Osei-Kyei, R., Tam, V., Ma, M., & Mashiri, F. (2021). Critical review of the threats affecting the building of critical infrastructure resilience. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 60, article number 102316. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102316.
  29. Pinotti, L., Luciano, A., Ottoboni, M., Manoni, M., Ferrari, L., Marchis, D., & Tretola, M. (2021). Recycling food leftovers in feed as opportunity to increase the sustainability of livestock production. Journal of Cleaner Production, 294, article number 126290. doi: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2021.126290.
  30. Prem, M., Purroy, M.E., & Vargas, J.F. (2025). Landmines: The local effects of demining. Journal of Public Economics, 247, article number 105399. doi: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2025.105399.
  31. Pylypenko, D., Shevchenko, N., & Pylypenko, M. (2025). Assessment of state supports and subsidies efficiency in ensuring financial security of Ukrainian agricultural enterprises. Ukrainian Black Sea Region Agrarian Science, 29(1), 57-71. doi: 10.56407/bs.agrarian/1.2025.57.
  32. Qu, S., She, Y., Zhou, Q., Verschuur, J., Zhao, L.-T., Liu, H., Hu, M., & Wei, Y.-M. (2024). Modeling the dynamic impacts of maritime network blockage on global supply chains. The Innovation, 5(4), article number 100653. doi: 10.1016/j.xinn.2024.100653.
  33. Rexhepi, B.R., Berisha, B.I., & Xhaferi, B.S. (2023). Analysis of the impact of the war on the economic state of agriculture in Ukraine. Economic Affairs, 68, 839-844. doi: 10.46852/0424-2513.2s.2023.29.
  34. Schillings, J., Bennett, R., & Rose, D.C. (2021). Exploring the potential of precision livestock farming technologies to help address farm animal welfare. Frontiers in Animal Science, 2, article number 639678. doi: 10.3389/fanim.2021.639678.
  35. Shaforost, Yu., Pogrebniak, O., Lut, O., Litvin, V., & Shevchenko, O. (2024). Chemical military-technogenic load on the soils of military training grounds. Plant and Soil Science, 15(2), 67-79. doi: 10.31548/plant2.2024.67.
  36. Shahini, E., Shehu, D., Kovalenko, O., & Nikonchuk, N. (2023). Comparative analysis of the main economic and biological parameters of maize hybrids that determine their productivity. Scientific Horizons, 26(4), 86-96. doi: 10.48077/scihor4.2023.86.
  37. State Statistics Service of Ukraine. (2025). Statistical information. Retrieved from https://ukrstat.gov.ua/.
  38. Statistics. (n.d.). United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia. Retrieved from https://www.unescwa.org/focus/statistics#related-publications.
  39. Syrian Arab Republic. (n.d.). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Retrieved from https://www.fao.org/syria.
  40. Tersoo Gbaeren, F., Fefa, J., & Ushahemba Ijirshar, V. (2024). Challenges of agro-allied industries in Nigeria: An alternative model for the way forward. Journal of Public Administration, Finance & Law, 31, 475-491. doi: 10.47743/jopafl-2024-31-34.
  41. The National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://naas.gov.ua/.
  42. Tucker, R.P., & McNeill, J.R. (2025). War and the environment. In J.R. McNeill & E.S. Mauldin (Eds.), A companion to global environmental history (pp. 314-330). Hoboken: John Wiley & Sons. doi: 10.1002/9781119988229.ch21.
  43. World Bank Group in Poland. (n.d.). World Bank Group. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/poland.
  44. Zhou, Y., Li, X., & Liu, Y. (2021). Cultivated land protection and rational use in China. Land Use Policy, 106, article number 105454. doi: 10.1016/j.landusepol.2021.105454.
Semenenko, O., Hrazion, D., Mytchenko, S., Sahun, A., & Sliusarenko, M. (2025). Assessment of the impact of losses of the agro-industrial complex of Ukraine due to military operations on the level of its national security (2014-2025). Ekonomika APK, 32(4), 58-69. https://doi.org/10.32317/ekon.apk/4.2025.58
Ekonomika APK
ISSN 2221-1055 · e-ISSN 2413-2322
2026 Ekonomika APK
03127, Ukraine, Kyiv
10, Heroiv Oborony Str.
info@eapk.com.ua