Foreign trade in Ukraine’s agri-food products in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic spread
The research results obtained during the implementation of the project “Assessment of the impact of quarantine measures related to COVID-19 on the agricultural sector and food security of the state and development of an algorithm for minimising the adverse consequences” No. 2020.01/0313 of the competition “Science for Human and Society Security” at the expense of grant support from the National Research Foundation of Ukraine. The purpose of the research – to analyse the impact of restrictive quarantine measures in 2020-2021 related to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic on foreign trade activities in the agricultural sector of Ukraine. In generalising the theoretical and methodological aspects of the research, the methods of the abstract and logical method, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analogy and comparison were used. To diagnose the dynamics of exports and imports of agro-food products, economic and statistical methods (comparative analysis, average and relative values, statistical groupings, trend analysis, graphical method, index, coefficient analysis, etc.) Several techniques of abstract and logical tools allowed the development of intermediate conclusions and proposals. It is established that the domestic agrarian sector, considering its current raw material and export orientation, depends on the foreign economic situation of market demand, which was affected by restrictions related to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the introduction of quarantine measures during the global level, namely: restrictions on trade transactions between states, restrictive measures on the movement of goods, closure of agro-food markets, etc. It is confirmed that since the beginning of the spread of COVID-19, the conditions for trade in agri-food products in Ukraine have deteriorated. It was determined that the volume of exports of agro-food products in 2020 compared to 2019 remained practically unchanged – an increase of 0.2%. Therewith, imports of such products for the same period increased by 13.3%. The excess of import growth over exports resulted in a significant deterioration in the foreign trade balance of agri-food products – a decrease of 4.4%, which indicates the adverse impact of the spread of the pandemic and the introduction of restrictive quarantine measures on foreign trade in domestic agri-food products. The most unfavourable trends were inherent in foreign trade in meat and dairy products. Scientific and methodological approaches to assessing the impact of quarantine restrictions related to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic on foreign trade in agri-food products in Ukraine were further developed. The results of the impact of restrictive quarantine measures on the state of foreign trade in agri-food products in 2020-2021 can be considered in the development of an efficient targeted national policy designed to increase the competitiveness of the agricultural sector, ensure Ukraine’s stable position in the global agri-food market, and the socio-economic development of the country in a pandemic
[1] Kryukova, I.O., Kalyna, T.Ye., Рanteleiev, V.P., & Minakova, S.M. (2018). Export potential of the agrarian sector of Ukraine in a competitive environment. Financial and credit activity: Problems of Theory and Practice, 3(26), 196-207. https://doi.org/10.18371/fcaptp.v3i26.144833.
[2] Commodity structure of Ukraine’s foreign trade. (2020). Retrieved from http://www.ukr-stat.gov.ua/ operativ/opera-tiv2020/zd/tsztt/tsztt_u/arh_tsztt2020_u.html.
[3] Borodina, O., & Krupin, V. (2018). Is it Possible to Utilise the Agricultural Potential of Ukraine under the Current Agrarian System? EuroChoices, 17(1), 46-51. doi: 10.1111/1746-692X.12151.
[4] Havaza, Ye.V. (2015). World market of milk and dairy products: Trends and prospects for Ukraine. Ekonomika APK, 7, 106-113.
[5] Harbuz, M.Yu. (2012). World market of milk and Ukraine’s place in it. AIC Economics and Management, 9, 20-24.
[6] Horlachuk, M.A. (2013). Agrarian market in conditions of globalization: Recurrence of development, coexistence and food safety. University Scientific Notes, 2, 219-222.
[7] Jemcev, V.I. (2013). Ways to revive and develop enterprise competitiveness of meat subindustry of the Ukrainian agricultural and industrial complex in competitive environment. Scientific Works of National University of Food Technologies, 48, 96-106.
[8] Zhylenkova, I.M. (2015). Agrarian capital of Ukraine and world food market: survey statistics of export of separate products (at the end of ХІХ cent. – at the beginning of ХХ of century). Hileya: Scientific Bulletin, 96, 19-22.
[9] Karasova, N. (2016). Comparative advantages in international trade of Ukrainian agriculture. Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, 38(2), 230-239. http://dx.doi.org/10.15544/mts.2016.18.
[10] Rjabchyk, A.V., & Volynecj, O.P. (2014). Market of products of stock-raising in Ukraine: The modern state and prospects of development. Agrosvit, 11, 38-43.
[11] Saljman, I.Ju., & Ibatullin, M.I. (2015). The role and position of Ukrainian producers on the world market of meat and meat products. Investytsiyi: Praktyka ta Dosvid, 20, 43-46.
[12] Tyvonchuk, C.V., & Tyvonchuk, Ya.O. (2014). World market of milk and dairy products: Features of its formation and development. Ukrainian Black Sea Region Agrarian Science, 2, 57-64.
[13] Hurzhii, N.M., & Svierchkova, A.S. (2013). World grain market: Trends and prospects. Sustainable Development of Economy, 4, 303-307.
[14] Salkova, I.Yu. (2014). The state of production and prospects of integration of Ukrainian grain producers into the world market. State and Regions. Series: Economics and Business, 1, 37-41.
[15] Franchenko, L.O. (2013). Optimization of channels of promotion by grain producers on the world market. Ekonomika APK, 9, 136-141.
[16] Chornyi, V.M. (2017). Internal risks of Ukrainian enterprises entering the world grain market. Finansovye Uslugi, 1, 44-48.
[17] Chekhova, I.V. (2017). The world market of oilseeds and Ukraine’s place in it. Bulletin of Agricultural Science, 9, 71-77.
[18] Tymofiieva, H.S. (2014). World market for agrarian products: Features of Ukraine’s participation. Bulletin of Chernihiv State Technological University. Sciences: Economic, 1, 56-61. Retrieved from http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/ Vcndtue_2014_1_11.
[19] Borysova, A.I., & Bykovska, K.M. (2014). Formation of a competitive position of agricultural enterprises in entering the foreign market. Business Navigator, 2, 98–102.
[20] Kliuchnyk, A.V., & Tereshkova, M.Yu. (2014). Motives and ways of agricultural enterprises entering the foreign market. Scientific Bulletin of Kherson State University. Series «Economic Sciences», 8(7), 94-97.
[21] Kliuchnyk, A.V., & Baryshnyk, L.S. (2016). Strategic directions of agricultural enterprises entering the European Union market. Economic Bulletin of the Zaporozhye State Engineering Academy, 6(1), 23-26.
[22] Joshi, P., Kulkarni, U., Munje, S., & Kulkarni, S. (2019). Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Indian Fruits and Vegetables Export, Postharvest Management Supply Chain and Future Strategies. Agric International, 6(4). doi: 10.5958/2454-8634.2019.00015.9.
[23] Barua, S. (2020). Understanding Coronanomics: The Economic Implications of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic. SSRN Electron. J. doi:10.2139/ssrn.3566477.
[24] Commodity Markets Outlook: Implications of COVID-19 for Commodities. A World Bank Group Report. (2020).
[25] Zakha, D., Movchan, V., Kravchuk, V., Kirkhner, R., & Polushkin, H. (2020). Economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on Ukraine: An analytical study. Berlin Economics. Retrieved from https:// rpr.org. ua/wp-content/up- loads/2020/05/GET_UKR_PS_01_2020_ua.pdf.
[26] Ukraine can feed not only itself but also a part of the world. On international trade and the decline of Ukraine’s economy during the pandemic: an interview with Veronica Movchan. Hromadske radio. (2020). Retrieved from https://voxukraine.org/uk/ukrayina-mozhe-nagoduvati-nelishe-sebe-a-j-chastinu-svitu-interv-yu-z-veronikoyu-movchan/.
[27] Kilnitska, O., Starunska, L., & Pereudа, S. (2020). Рersonnel safety of agricultural enterprises of ukraine: assessment and directions of provision. Scientific Horizons, 23(11), 70-80. doi: 10.48077/ scihor.23(11).2020.70-80.
[28] Foreign trade in certain types of goods by country. (2021). State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Retrieved from http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2021/zd/e_iovt/arh_iovt2021.htm.
[29] Indices of physical volume, average prices and conditions of trade in Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods. (2021). Retrieved from http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2021/zd/in_fiz/arh_in_fiz_21_u.htm.
[30] Official website of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food of Ukraine. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://minagro.gov.ua/monitoring.